Former President Rodrigo Duterte’s recent arrest over alleged crimes against humanity and transfer to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague in March 2025 has raised the stakes for the midterm elections that will take place in the Philippines on May 12, 2025, amid a volatile political climate. Analysts say the development could significantly reshape the political landscape, especially as power struggles intensify between two of the nation’s most influential dynasties: the Dutertes and the Marcoses.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who holds key political machinery, is backing a full senatorial slate, while the Dutertes are consolidating power in Davao City, with Rodrigo Duterte running for mayor and his sons seeking key local posts. His daughter, Sara Duterte, is seen as a top contender for the 2028 presidential race. Possible criminal complaints against her and an impeachment trial may, however, disqualify the Vice President if she is convicted.
Political analyst Jean Franco believes that the Marcos camp may double efforts to subdue the Duterte dynasty as they are wary of Duterte’s possible revenge.
Marcos Jr.’s decision to honor the ICC warrant has created tensions with Duterte loyalists, who view the move as a betrayal. The resulting divide threatens to fracture the ruling coalition, potentially forcing political candidates to choose between maintaining support from Duterte’s base or aligning with Marcos Jr.’s wider political network.
Observers say that the ICC’s arrest of Rodrigo Duterte has energized his supporters ahead of the 2025 elections, turning his detention into a rallying point for those who see it as an act of foreign interference and political persecution.
Thousands of Duterte’s supporters flooded the streets of Davao City on his 80th birthday last March 28, 2025, calling for his return to the Philippines from ICC custody. Hundreds of overseas Filipinos gathered in front of the ICC detention center in The Hague on the same day to celebrate Duterte’s birthday, many of them travelling from Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, the UK, Finland, Sweden, and the United Arab Emirates.
When asked about the killings associated with Duterte’s anti-drug campaign, his supporters described them as mere “casualties” of what they claimed was, after all, a “war” on illegal drugs. Such killings of drug addicts were “justified.”
The Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency (PDEA) reported that more than 6,000 people were killed in police anti-drug operations from July 1, 2016, to May 31, 2022, during Duterte’s term. This figure does not include those killed by unidentified perpetrators, whom the Commission on Human Rights estimated from 2016 to 2017 to be between 27,000 and 30,000.
Such killings might have happened “but we don’t know everything,” said a Filipino woman from the Hague who was interviewed by Rappler. Another Duterte supporter said that sometimes, Filipinos need to be ruled with an iron fist. “The right person in government is needed to make Filipinos comply”. Another said Duterte’s rhetoric of violence against drug addicts and pushers should not have been taken literally. “It does not mean that if he says ‘kill’ he really means that. It’s just a figure of speech,” he said. The Philippines was safer when Duterte was in power, said another Filipina who attended Duterte’s celebration in the Hague. “In our place in Negros, the addicts and pushers really disappeared during President Duterte’s time,” she further explained.
However, human rights organizations report that majority of those slain under Duterte’s “war on drugs” were people from impoverished neighborhoods and the killings left their families to grapple with both emotional devastation and financial hardship.
At a demonstration in Berlin on March 23, 2025, Duterte’s arrest and detention was celebrated by activist groups like the International Coalition for Human Rights in the Philippines (ICHRP)-Germany and Gabriela-Germany. Protestors pointed out that Duterte’s arrest was the result of years of tireless advocacy by human rights defenders, families of victims, and international legal bodies.
During the launching ceremony of Duterte Panagutin Europe Network (DPEN) in The Hague last March 28, 2025, Kristina Conti, one of the assistant counsels for the families of people who were slain under Duterte’s anti-drugs campaign, stressed that no matter how many applaud for the former president, “what matters are the facts and what he did will never be right.” A Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey, conducted from February 15 to 19, 2025, showed that 51 percent of Filipinos agree, Duterte must be made liable for drug-related killings during his presidency.
The former administration’s early achievements in curbing illegal drug use were overshadowed by widespread public condemnation of the deadly tactics employed to carry out Duterte’s agenda. By December 2018, 95 percent of the public believed that it was important for police to apprehend drug suspects alive.
SWS president Mangahas said that while the former president was very popular during his term, “public opinion about Duterte’s ‘war on drugs’ was consistently unfavorable to him.” Three out of four Filipinos were worried about becoming victims themselves. This may explain why candidates endorsed by President Marcos Jr. are predicted to win nine of the 12 senate seats up for grabs at the forthcoming May elections.
Photo © Emmalyn Liwag Kotte