Former President Rodrigo Duterte has won the mayoral election in Davao City on May 12, 2025, even while being detained in The Hague by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in connection with the human rights violations committed in his so-called “war on drugs.” According to the official canvass report, Duterte received 662,630 votes, far surpassing his opponent, Atty. Karlo Nograles, who secured just 80,852 votes.
Duterte was formally proclaimed the newly elected mayor on Tuesday, May 13, 2025. However, his actual assumption of the mayor’s office will depend on a decision from the Commission on Elections (COMELEC). Legal expert Rodel Taton, dean of the San Sebastian Graduate School of Law, pointed out that under the Omnibus Election Code, if an elected official fails or refuses to take the oath of office within six months of being proclaimed, the position will be declared vacant. However, Taton clarified that there is an exception: “If he can prove that such failure is beyond his control, his oath may be suspended. It is up to the COMELEC to determine whether his detention qualifies as a valid reason.”
Despite the legal uncertainty, Vice President Sara Duterte has confirmed that preparations for her father’s swearing-in are already underway. Election results show that Rodrigo Duterte’s political base in Davao City remains firm. His son, Sebastian “Baste” Duterte, won the vice mayoral race and some say that he is expected to assume mayoral duties in the absence of his father.
Rodrigo Duterte’s older son, Paolo “Pulong” Duterte, secured his third and final term as Congressman for Davao City’s 1st District. In the same district, Pulong’s son, Rodrigo “Rigo” Duterte II, won a councilor seat with the highest number of votes. Rigo is expected to take on the role of acting vice mayor when his uncle, Sebastian, assumes the position of acting mayor.
Pulong’s older son, Omar Duterte, won in Davao’s 2nd District and is set to join his father in the House of Representatives. Pulong’s wife, January Duterte, will assume a seat in the city council as president of Davao’s Association of Barangay Captains.
Citing the Dutertes’ landslide victory in Davao City, some media reports assert that the 2025 midterm elections have clearly demonstrated the Duterte family’s influential hold on a substantial portion of the Philippine electorate.
It was also observed, however, that while the Dutertes have retained political control in Davao City, their influence appears to be declining in other provinces of the Davao Region, where candidates aligned with President Marcos and his Partido Federal ng Pilipinas (PFP) won key positions in the 2025 midterm elections.
Proxy fight
The recent midterm election was considered a proxy fight between Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte as the former allies have turned enemies. More candidates who were supported by Marcos Jr. were expected to win because the sitting president’s influence is typically strong during midterm polls, said some analysts.
The election resulted in a three-way deadlock among candidates backed by Marcos Jr., allies of Duterte, and liberal-leaning contenders, said Maria Ela Atienza, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines.
Out of the 12 new senators elected, five were endorsed by Sara Duterte, including the president’s sister, Imee Marcos, and Camille Villar, both of whom are linked to the Marcos political faction. Five more were aligned with the Marcos camp, while two unexpected winners came from the opposition – Paolo Benigno “Bam” Aquino IV and Francisco “Kiko” Pangilinan. Two Duterte allies – Christopher “Bong” Go and Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa – also placed in the top five. Political analysist Ronald Llamas explained that the results showed “a vote against the administration” but it was also “not a vote for the Dutertes,” as many anti-Duterte candidates won mandates in the House of Representatives.
Davao anthropologist Amiel Lopez noted that Rodrigo Duterte’s detention at The Hague might, paradoxically, be boosting his family’s political standing. He suggested that events such as the protests and prayer rallies following Duterte’s arrest have galvanized public support, particularly through the promotion of a “Mindanao vote” and a regionalist identity. This sense of regional solidarity, combined with nationalist sentiments, has fostered an “us versus them” mentality that has solidified the Duterte family’s political influence, he explained.
House Representative Toby Tiangco also believes that the impeachment complaint against Sara Duterte is to blame for the poor election results of Marcos-backed senatorial candidates in Mindanao. Tiangco explained that “the sense of Mindanao voters changed after Sara Duterte was impeached by the House of Representatives and the impeachment was filed in the Senate for trial.”
“If in the past, our candidates were getting votes from Mindanao, now no more. In the past, they chose candidates that they liked. Now, it changed. Their choice of candidates was whoever would not vote in favor of the impeachment,” Tiangco said.
However, Congressman Jude Acidre pointed out that 100 or almost 87 percent of the 115 House Representative who voted to impeach Sara Duterte won fresh mandates in the midterm election. “These results dismantle the narrative that the impeachment was a political liability,” said Acidre. Acidre also pointed out that in Mindanao, the stronghold of the Dutertes, 36 out 44 district lawmakers who endorsed the Vice President’s impeachment got reelected in the recent polls.
Seven senators in the 20th Congress are expected to acquit her in the impeachment trial, says University of the Philippines – Diliman professor Aries Arugay. Among them are newly elected Duterte backed senators Christopher Go, Ronald Dela Rosa, Rodante Marcoleta, Camille Villar and Imee Marcos. They are expected to join Duterte allies Robin Padilla and Alan Peter Cayetano whose terms run until 2028.
Given that a conviction in the 24-seat Senate requires 16 votes, or two-thirds of the chamber, Sara Duterte would need at least nine votes for acquittal.
Photo © AMP